‘Probably almost half of the products in a supermarket will be affected by these tariffs, whether it’s the entire product or just an ingredient,” Food industry analyst Phil Lempert told NPR.
10% global tariffs, more for countries on ‘worst offenders’ list
President Donald Trump plans to enact 10% tariffs on all countries’ imports and reciprocal tariffs, and more for countries on “worst offenders” list.
Although President Donald Trump’s self-proclaimed “Liberation Day” has passed, American grocery shoppers’ wallets may soon feel the impact of the reciprocal tariffs imposed on several of the country’s trade partners earlier this week.
Food industry analyst Phil Lempert told NPR that “probably almost half of the products in a supermarket − about 40,000 products − will be affected by these tariffs, whether it’s the entire product or just an ingredient.”
The goal of Trump’s round of recent tariffs is to boost domestic manufacturing by making it more expensive for international companies to ship products into the U.S. On Wednesday, Trump and the White House announced the reciprocal tariffs against nations that charge fees to U.S. imports, with higher tariffs for what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the “Dirty 15,” a reference to the 15% of countries with the largest trade surpluses and high tariff and non-tariff barriers, according to Reuters.
“Over the decades, they ripped us off like no country has never been ripped off in history and we’re going to be much nicer than they were to us, but it’s substantial money for the country,” Trump told reporters on March 30, per ABC News.
The reciprocal tariffs come after Trump decided to levy 20% tariffs on imports from China and 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada earlier this year. With inflation and tariffs severely affecting the U.S. economy, grocery shoppers may need to be more diligent in their couponing going forward.
Here are some grocery items that could, and may not, see a price hike due to Trump’s enacted reciprocal tariffs.
Will avocadoes, other fruits be impacted?
Impacts on fruit prices could be a mixed bag, with some tropical varieties from Central and South America likely to be affected, while others from our nearest neighbors − Canada and Mexico − escaping Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
The U.S. received 51% of its fresh fruit from Mexico, and 2% from Canada, in 2022, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Both countries were not on the White House and Trump’s chart of nations facing reciprocal tariffs.
Some other top sources of imported fruit include Guatemala, Costa Rica and Peru. All three countries are on the White House’s chart and were given 10% reciprocal tariffs.
Guatemala, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Honduras are the main exporters of bananas to the U.S., according to the University of Florida’s Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. Guatemala also ships melons, plantains and papayas, USDA said, while Costa Rica exports pineapples, avocados and mangoes.
“These products don’t have a long shelf life, and with the tariffs, we’re going to face significant issues with both price and availability,” Lempert said about fruit, per NPR.
While some fruits could see an increase in cost, Avocadoes may not be one of them.
Avocados are one of the Mexican food items that the U.S. will be able to continue importing tariff-free, Reuters reported. Of the fresh avocados the U.S. imports, 87.6% come from Mexico, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data as of Jan. 7.
Will vegetable costs increase?
Approximately 69% of America’s fresh vegetables came from Mexico, and 20% from Canada, in 2022, according to the USDA.
“The United States receives fresh vegetables from more than 125 different countries, but most imports originate from Mexico and Canada,” the USDA states.
Between 1998 and 2020, the volume of fresh vegetable imports to the U.S. rose nearly 200%, and the value of fresh vegetable imports grew to exceed fresh exports by $7.6 billion, more than double the same figure a decade earlier, according to the government agency.
While vegetables from Mexico and Canada may not be impacted by the reciprocal tariffs, veggies from other countries on the White House chart − including Guatemala, Costa Rica, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Honduras, Morocco and China − could see an increase in cost.
Seafood likely to become more expensive
The U.S. imports the vast majority of its seafood, up to 85%, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Due to this, and since several countries that supply fish and shellfish to the U.S. were among the hardest hit by tariffs, seafood will likely become more expensive going forward.
Chile, India, Indonesia and Vietnam are the largest suppliers of imported seafood, according to the USDA. All four countries are on the White House’s chart, but Vietnam was hit with the highest tariffs at 46%, while Chile (10%), India (26%) and Indonesia (32%) followed behind.
“About 70 to 80% of the U.S. seafood food supply is imported, and so that is not a number that the U.S. domestic industry can plug,” Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at The Food Industry Association said, per Today. “So you’re going to see that the cost of the seafood department go up.”
Coffee could become harder to buy
The U.S. is the world’s largest importer of coffee, according to the USDA. About 80% of U.S. roasted imports come from Latin America, with more than 60% coming from just two countries — Brazil and Colombia, the agency said.
Brazil and Colombia are both on the White House’s chart, and they were both hit with 10% reciprocal tariffs.
Imported alcohol market ‘likely to be clobbered’
Lempert said the imported alcohol market is likely “to be clobbered” due to the tariffs, according to NPR.
According to USDA, the top import sources for wine include the European Union (France, Italy and Spain), New Zealand and Australia. The European countries were hit with 20% reciprocal tariffs, while New Zealand and Australia received 10% tariffs.
The U.S. imports most of its beer from Mexico and Canada, as well as the Netherlands and Ireland, which were both hit with 20% tariffs. Lempert added that beer sold in cans will also get doubly impacted due to tariffs on China and other aluminum producers.
Olive oil prices could skyrocket
European Union, particularly Spain, Italy and Greece, are the top import sources for olive oil.
“Olive oil prices have gone through the roof,” Lempert said, per NPR. “They’re going to go even higher.”
Certain cheeses imported from the European Union, especially Italy, France, Spain and the Netherlands, could see a price increase. Parmigiano-Reggiano, brie and Gouda are a few cheeses that may become costly.
What grocery items may not increase in cost?
Some grocery items that may not increase much, primarily because due to them being domestically produced, include beef and rice. While both these goods could remain relatively the same, they could raise a tad bit.
Although 90% of beef consumed in the U.S. is domestically produced, tariffs could add to existing price increases that have raised costs to historic highs, and according to the USDA, the U.S. cattle herd is the smallest it’s been since 1951.
Like beef, rice sold in the U.S. is domestically produced, but nearly a third is imported, primarily jasmine rice from Thailand and basmati rice from India, the USDA states. Thailand and India are both on the White House chart.
Contributing: James Powel, Rachel Barber & Lori Comstock/ USA TODAY
