Egg prices are going down because of less demand
The Department of Agriculture says the average wholesale price for a dozen white large eggs was $3.26 cents as of April 4, That’s down more than $3 from the beginning of last month. The price has fallen mostly because of less demand.
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Retail U.S. egg prices continue to be volatile, even as wholesale egg prices in recent weeks have declined and as demand for eggs will likely increase as the Easter holiday approaches.
But egg prices at the grocery store, prices reported in some data reports like the consumer price index and prices on the wholesale market don’t always match. The rise in prices has been largely driven by the highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, outbreak.
For instance, the latest consumer price index released Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics shows the highest price for a dozen large grade A eggs since the recent egg-price crisis began.
But that price and the consumer price index cost of eggs overall, which was up 5.9% in March, may not accurately reflect the drop in wholesale prices that started in the middle of the month. The CPI is an average of data collected through the month and retail prices were higher at the beginning of March, one expert said.
Additionally, retailers may not have dropped prices of eggs proportionately with the drop in the wholesale egg market, which may have to do with retailers wanting to take advantage of recent worries about scarcity to keep prices high and upcoming demand for Easter, some experts say.
What’s the latest on egg prices?
According to the consumer price index, the average U.S. city price of a dozen large grade A eggs at retail stores, not seasonally adjusted for March, was $6.23. That’s up from $5.90 in February and $4.95 in January.
Overall, egg costs jumped another 5.9% in March, which was not as high as the 10.4% in February or 15.2% in January, when seasonally adjusted, according to the latest consumer price index released Thursday. There was a 60.4% increase in egg prices in the last 12 months.
But wholesale prices, which are reported in a different government report, are nearly half the price of the consumer price index reported for March. The last report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture on April 4 listed the average wholesale price of loose, white large shell eggs at $3.26 per dozen, up 26 cents from the previous week. The next weekly report will be released Friday.
“We are continuing to see an increase in egg prices at the consumer level due largely in part to supply constraints resulting from the HPAI (bird flu) virus,” Kevin Bergquist, Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Sector Manager told USA TODAY. “Interestingly, egg prices at the wholesale level have been dropping week-to-week through March as the frequency of HPAI infections has diminished and supply begins to rebound.”
How much you pay for eggs varies widely depending on where you live. Data gathered by USA TODAY shows the price on Thursday at several retail stores in Wildwood, Missouri, a suburb of St. Louis, for instance, are lower than the U.S. city average reported in the consumer price index.
Prices for a dozen, large Grade A eggs at an Aldi, Costco, Kroger, Target, Sam’s Club, Walmart and Whole Foods on Thursday ranged from a low of $4.19 at Whole Foods to a high of $5.49 at Aldi. The Whole Foods price was taken from the grocer’s website and the Aldi price was from Instacart. Instacart prices are set by the grocer.
Why is there a difference between the CPI and wholesale prices?
The consumer price index is determined by Bureau of Labor Statistics data employees collect during the previous month at retail stores. For March, that would be March 1 through March 31.
But the consumer price index is a lagging indicator, said Jason Nickerson, principal in the food & agribusiness division of global consulting firm Kearney’s consumer practice.
“The reason CPI retail egg prices remain high despite falling wholesale prices comes down to timing and market dynamics,” Nickerson told USA TODAY. First, there’s a lag between wholesale and retail prices – retail prices often take weeks to adjust because stores sell inventory purchased at higher wholesale costs. Eggs have a shelf life of about four weeks, so March CPI data reflects prices based on older wholesale rates.
Wholesale prices started dropping significantly in mid-March, he said, so the full impact wasn’t reflected in March’s CPI.
There was also “a significant jump to record level egg price highs in the early part of March,” Amy Nixon, an independent economist based in Dallas, told USA TODAY. “Those highs are weighted into the total (CPI) number, even though we did end up seeing a drop in retail prices by the very end of the month and wholesale data suggests further price drops are ahead as well.”
Why is the price of eggs at my store still high?
While prices at the grocery store may have come down from highs earlier this year, there is still a lot of volatility in the egg market, which depends on demand, supply and whether there have been any more significant outbreaks of the avian flu, experts say.
Retailer pricing strategies play into this, said Nickerson.
“Retailers may delay passing savings to consumers to recover costs or maintain margins, especially with seasonal Easter demand keeping retail prices elevated,” he said.
The relationship between wholesale and retail prices is always inexact, said Bergquist.
“Grocers make business decisions every day as to whether a specific product price could gain or lose margin for them,” Bergquist told USA TODAY.
While wholesale egg prices have been declining over the past several weeks, egg prices are still above levels from prior years and long-term averages, he said.
Are prices for other Easter-related foods high?
According to March’s consumer price index, the price for some other popular staples of an Easter meal have not fluctuated much or been subjected to wild price swings, like eggs.
The U.S. city average price for ham, not including canned ham or luncheon slices per pound, not seasonally adjusted, remains steady at $4.50 per pound, from $4.43 per pound in February and $4.41 per pound in January. The price in 2024 also ranged in the mid $4 per pound range.
The average U.S. city price of white potatoes per pound, not seasonally adjusted, also was steady at 95 cents per pound in March. The price in February, rounded up, was 96 cents per pound and 97 cents in January. The price in 2024 hovered around the dollar mark.
Data journalist John Heasly contributed to this report. Betty Lin-Fisher is a consumer reporter for USA TODAY. Reach her at blinfisher@USATODAY.com or follow her on X, Facebook or Instagram @blinfisher and @blinfisher.bsky.social on Bluesky. Sign up for our free The Daily Money newsletter, which will include consumer news on Fridays, here.
