WASHINGTON — An American intelligence assessment of the Ecuadorian presidential election, set for Sunday, concluded that a reelection of the incumbent president would better serve U.S. national security interests over the challenger. The assessment comes as the Trump administration mulls establishing a permanent U.S. military presence in the South American country, once known as the “island of peace,” to help battle violent gangs, CBS News has learned.
The U.S. intelligence assessment, completed days ago, concluded that a win for President Daniel Noboa in Sunday’s election against challenger Luisa González would better serve U.S. interests over the next four years.
On the negotiation table, Noboa’s pitch to the Trump administration last month to put a U.S. military base in Ecuador, according to two U.S. intelligence officials with knowledge of the assessment and who spoke to CBS News under the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive national security matters.
Amid deepening political divisions and rising urban violence, Ecuadorians will head to the polls Sunday to choose between two starkly different futures: the continuation of a brash, business-minded president under Noboa, or a return to the leftist fold led by attorney Luisa González, who has made overtures to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
The runoff election marks yet another chapter in the country’s struggle against a surge of violent crime that has engulfed cities in a country that was once a popular tourist destination and was left badly scarred by the pandemic.
Sunday’s election is a rematch of Ecuador’s 2023 election when Noboa, a first-time politician and the son of Ecuador’s wealthiest man—Álvaro Noboa, a banana exporter—defeated González, a protégée of former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa. The intelligence assessment detailed how González remains too close to Correa, who ousted the U.S. military from Ecuador in 2014 over concerns of U.S. meddling in Ecuador’s internal affairs, according to the BBC.
A decade after the U.S. military’s removal, Noboa and former President Guillermo Lasso reinstated military cooperation between Ecuador and the United States. That followed a surge in violence throughout the country when last year, Noboa said his administration was “at war” with transnational drug cartels operating in his country.
“I can’t speak to what level of cooperation is being discussed bilaterally or even to U.S.-only discussions but the goal of any partnership or U.S. presence in Ecuador would likely be towards kinetically going after criminal organizations, not simply just a training mission,” said one of the U.S. intelligence officials.
Noboa’s announcement came on the heels of unrest that tore through Ecuador in the opening days of 2024—a barrage of prison riots, car bombings, contract killings, and kidnappings that shook the nation’s already fragile order. Last year, Ecuador made global headlines when a TV station was taken over by armed masked men during a live broadcast, the BBC reported.
The assessment also raised concerns about Correa’s historical relationship with Russia and how Russia planned to conduct information operations to undercut President Noboa and support González. The U.S. intelligence officials also said the report showed that González received financial support from Maduro, and she plans to recognize Maduro if she wins on Sunday. The U.S. does not recognize Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, and he and his government remain under U.S. sanctions.
However, the U.S. officials told CBS News that the conclusions of the political assessment garnered disagreement between U.S. intelligence agencies. The officials characterized the disagreement between the spy organizations as “splitting hairs” over González’s perceived ties to Russia and Venezuela and the idea that she will work with whomever she believes will help her achieve her political goals.
Contacted by CBS News, no reply was immediately returned from the National Security Council or Office of the Director of National Intelligence Friday evening.
Last month, Reuters reported that Ecuadorean officials told allies of President Trump that they were interested in hosting a U.S. military base in the country while also inking a free trade agreement with the United States. The news wire reported that Ecuador’s interests were communicated to Republican lobbyists in Washington close to the Trump administration. Similarly, CNN reported that Ecuador has already begun laying the groundwork for U.S. forces to arrive by planning to construct a new naval facility in the coastal city of Manta.
Noboa told the BBC he wants the U.S., Brazil and European nations to join his war on gangs.
Ecuador ranks among the ten largest economies in Latin America, and the U.S. plays an outsized role in its economic lifeblood. In 2023, bilateral trade between the two nations surged to $15.2 billion, underscoring a relationship defined as much by raw materials as by strategic interest, according to the U.S. State Department.
American exporters shipped everything from minerals and fuel to heavy machinery, electrical equipment, and packaged goods. Ecuador, for its part, kept the U.S. market well-supplied with oil, shrimp, bananas, cacao, tuna, mining products, and the occasional bouquet of roses—an exchange that paints a vivid portrait of a nation exporting nature and importing the tools of industry.
Ecuador avoided Mr. Trump’s imposed tariffs rolled out by the White House last week which have heightened concerns about economic growth and created a tumultuous rollercoaster ride for stock market traders. In February, Ecuador slapped Mexico with a 27% tariff in a move that echoed President Trump’s trade levies.
