Why grocery egg prices might fall slower than wholesale in the US

While wholesale egg prices have dropped, consumer prices may not decrease right away due to seasonal factors, U.S. agriculture secretary says
Meanwhile, the USDA is offering biosecurity assessments and financial assistance to poultry producers to prevent and mitigate bird flu outbreaks
The U.S. also is importing eggs from other countries to address shortages
And the USDA is investing in research and development of poultry vaccines to reduce the need for culling infected birds

Even though wholesale egg prices are falling, it’s unclear if U.S. consumers will see grocery store prices decline anytime soon, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said Thursday.

Rollins said in a call with reporters that New York wholesale egg prices had declined more than 50% to $4.08 a dozen from a record high of $8.53 Feb. 26. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that day it would invest $1 billion in an effort to cut egg costs.

While calling lower wholesale prices a move “in the right direction,” Rollins said grocery store prices could, in fact, continue climbing, given increased demand ahead of the upcoming Easter holiday. In addition, she noted that the spring migration of wild birds is imminent, bringing the threat of increased bird flu outbreaks, the main reason for the egg-price runup.

“While prices are exponentially down, and we’re really, really encouraged by that, there’s always a possibility that prices could tick back up,” said Rollins.

Wild birds, particularly waterfowl, carry the deadly disease, spreading it primarily during their spring and fall migrations. Highly pathogenic avian influenza has forced U.S. farmers to cull 168 million birds since the outbreak began in February 2022.

Producers in Iowa, the nation’s largest egg producer, have destroyed nearly 30.7 million chickens, turkeys and other birds in an effort to contain the disease.

Here’s what to know about the U.S.’ approach to curbing bird flu and lowering retail egg prices, which were nearly 60% higher in February than a year ago, according to the most recent Consumer Price Index report.

USDA offers assessments to cut bird flu outbreaks

Farmers in the largest egg-producing states will be the first offered voluntary assessments of their facilities’ general biosecurity and analyses of how wildlife could spread avian influenza to their flocks, expanding a pilot project started under President Joe Biden before he left office in January.

Rollins said the two free consultations will be available to egg operations that haven’t experienced outbreaks as a way to help prevent losses. The USDA will share 75% of the costs to remedy the highest biosecurity risks, she said.

Facilities that have been hit with bird flu will receive a biosecurity audit before restocking to help protect future flocks, Rollins said.

Additionally, the USDA is roughly doubling the amount of money that poultry producers hit by bird flu receive, Rollins said. The added assistance — about $17 more per bird — provides “critical relief to farmers,” helping them more quickly replace their flocks, she said.

Turkey, South Korea boosting U.S. egg sales

Turkey and South Korea have agreed to export liquid eggs to the U.S. to help address shortages, Rollins said, adding that shell egg exports from the U.S. have declined, keeping more eggs on the domestic market. A third country is in talks with the USDA to export eggs, Rollins said, but she declined to identify it.

Reuters has reported that the USDA asked European countries, including Denmark, to export eggs to the U.S. to help lower prices. They’re among the countries that President Donald Trump is levying tariffs against, and it’s unclear how that might affect prices.

Pumping $100 million into vaccine, therapeutics research

As previously announced, the USDA is moving ahead with plans to invest $100 million in research and development of poultry vaccines, a move that Rollins had previously said would reduce the need to cull birds to prevent the virus’ spread. Some Iowa flocks that have been destroyed numbered in the millions, an impact large enough to result in egg shortages.

Should the U.S. let bird flu run rampant in flocks?

After Rollins had left the call, Kailee Buller, the USDA’s chief of staff, said she “could spread no further light” on her boss’s thoughts about U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s suggestion that officials should let avian influenza “run through the flock so that we can identify the birds, and preserve the birds, that are immune to it.”

Buller said Rollins and Kennedy talk regularly “to align their approach” on avian influenza.

It’s an idea the New York Times reported Kennedy has proposed more than once while on Fox News. Scientists are concerned that allowing the virus to race unchecked through farms would enable it to mutate, potentially becoming dangerous to humans.

So far, the public health risk of the H5N1 virus is low, with no person-to-person spread, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has said. But on Monday, the U.S. reported its first outbreak since 2017 of another bird flu strain, H7N9. Unrelated to the H5N1 strain, it has proven to have a high death rate for humans worldwide.

The detection came in a commercial broiler breeder chicken flock in Mississippi, the World Organization of Animal Health said. The flock of 46,000 birds was destroyed, the USDA said.

It said state and federal officials are conducting additional surveillance and testing in the area.

Donnelle Eller covers agriculture, the environment and energy for the Register. Reach her at deller@registermedia.com.